Miguel Jose Mansur Jr.: Status Aparte: caminda pa prosperidad of empobrecimento?

Pa: Miguel Jose Mansur Jr.

Status Aparte: caminda pa prosperidad of empobrecimento?

Usando cifranan di Banco Central y IMF mi a prepara un analisis economico di cada periodo di gobernacion desde Status Aparte. Pa cada gabinete mi ta saca un balance, cu ta simplemente crecimento economico real (ajusta pa inflacion) menos crecimento den debe nacional.

E prome 14 aña nan a consisti di cinco diferente gobierno, tur tabata di coalicion y bao di tur nos crecimento economico real a surpasa e crecimento di debe dus e tabata un temporada positivo.

Na elecion di 2001 un solo partido ta coi mayoria pa prome biaja post-Status Aparte y esaki ta marca un cambio di 180 grado. MEP su Gabinete Oduber III ta sinta y pa prome biaja e crecimento den debe ta surpasa e crecimento economico real pa mas cu 230 miyon florin.

Elecion di 2005 ta bolbe duna MEP un mayoria absoluto y e trayectoria scur ta sigui durante Gabinete Oduber IV. Pa prome biaja Aruba ta conoce un crecimento economico real negativo durante un periodo di gobernacion. Combina cu e crecimento den debe di 741 miyon den 8 aña, dos gobierno sigui di un solo partido a caba cu tur e progreso di e cinco gobierno nan anterior.

AVP ta gana elecion na 2009 cu un mayoria absoluto y Gabinete Mike Eman I ta wordo inaugura. Desafortunadamente e trayecto di empobrecimento no ta solamente sigui pero acelera. Crecimento economico real a keda negativo pa e periodo di gobernacion aki tambe y mas espantoso ta cu nan a añadi mas cu 1.1 biyon na nos debe nacional sin conta e proyecto nan PPP.

Na siguiente elecion AVP ta coi e mayoria mas grandi den nos historia post-status aparte cu 13 asiento. Durante Gabinete Mike Eman II Aruba a bolbe na crecimento economico real positivo pero e no a yega ni cerca di e aumento den debe cu tabata casi double. Na final di su periodo di gobernacion nos Debt/GDP ratio a yega 76.9% di 45.6% na final di Gabinete Oduber IV y esei ta sin conta e obligacion nan financiero asocia cu proyecto nan PPP estima na 923 miyon. Incluyendo e obligacion nan financiero di PPP e debe ta pasa 5 biyon y un Debt/GDP ratio di 93.4%. Sigur esaki tabata e administracion mas financieramente destructivo den nos historia.

Elecion di 2017 a bolbe un gobierno di coalicion y Gabinete Evelyn Wever-Croes. Te cu final di 2019 crecimento economico real tabata di 174 miyon mientras e debe a crece 206.8 miyon. E ta keda un aporte negativo na balance cumulativo pero e aumento den debe ta na un escala minusculo compara cu e periodo nan di un solo partido den gobierno. CAFt, medida nan adicional y e control di un gobierno di coalicion tabata parce di purba cambia e rumbo devastador prome cu e crisis di Covid-19 a dal.

Mi kier aclara cu debe nacional di su mes no ta necesariamente algo negativo. Ora e placa ta wordo inverti den educacion, infrastructura y salubridad publico di forma responsable e por rindi den futuro. Aumenta debe nacional pa financia un sector publico cu tin por lo menos dos mil empleado di mas si ta desastroso pa bienestar comun. Proyecto nan publico of PPP cu un costo exorbitante y cu resultado cuestionable p.e. flooding di e hospital nobo ta inversion nan cu nunca lo wordo recupera.

Loke e ultimo 34 aña nan a mustra ta cu gobierno nan di coalicion ta menos peligroso pa nos finanzas. Un cambio den ley den e sistema di restzetels mester bira un prioridad pa preveni e exceso nan di pasado. Ta keda pa wak si nos sistema di dos partido grandi cu pa mayoria di nos historia post-1986 a pasa ta alterna despues di dos turno di gobernacion por reforma pa saca nos di e pos finaciero cu nos ta aden.

Tumando en cuenta e pronostico nan di IMF di un contracion economico di 13.7% e aña aki, por lo menos 500 miyon florin mas den debe y e obligacion nan financiero PPP di casi un biyon cu no ta inclui den e cuenta nan di pais Aruba nos Debt/GDP ratio ta yega 112%. Mas probable ta cu lo mester bolbe pidi Hulanda placa pa tur cuartal di 2021 y probablemente e prome mitar di 2022 tambe cu no ta mas.

E beneficio nan di nos autonomia cu tanto e politico nan ta alaba a resulta fantasma. Al contrario nos autonomia a empodera nos gobernante nan pa los laga bai cu finanzas publico te cu nos a caba den un buraco di cual no tin salida sin pordonamento di debe y un sin fin di mas medida doloroso. No pasobra Status Aparte tabata malo (nos creciemento economico a yega un impresionante 18.6% na 1988), pero paso nos gobernantenan a resulta incapaz di maneja finanzas publico den un manera responsable liber di limite imponi pa Hulanda of Antiyas.

Kiko awor? Tin elecion otro aña y ta dificil premira un situacion den cual AVP of MEP no ta bolbe den gobierno maske den coalicion. Ta keda cuestionable si nos sistema di politica di patronaje cu a crea e situacion fatal aki por saca nos afor. Siendo un isla chiquito caminda e electorado tin aceso relativamente facil na gobernante a crea un dinamica cu ta traja na desfabor comun. Hende capacita y cu bon intencion a yega di drenta politica pero den nos sistema sin limite di periodo pa sinta como parlamentario of ministro e enfoque ta keda arriba gana proximo elecion. Decision nan dificil of inpopular no ta wordo tuma paso nan ta costa voto y esei a resulta den e desastre actual cu ta prexisti covid-19 y lo a bin toch pero no asina dramatico y urgente.

Despues di elecion na 2017 Mike Eman juciosamente a declara cu pueblo a perde confianza den AVP (cu nan razon) y ta tempo pa e instituto renoba. Ela declara cu e mes, De Meza, Sevinger y Dowers lo retira aunque nos no a tende mucho mas di esei despues cu e voto nan personal a sali. Ban spera e no a cambia di idea pa tin un elecion competitivo otro aña paso e legado di su dos administracion nan no por ta peor.

Evelyn Wever-Croes a haci masha promesa, nan ta bai sinta cu siete ministro, nan ta bai caba cu corupcion, nan tin e solucion sin medida… Well prome cu sinta caba un di e promesa nan a cai na awa ora ela pone interes di partido prome cu interes nacional y sinta cu 8 ministro toch. Ela priminti di caba cu corupcion pero advocatenkantoor di su tata atrobe tin cuenta di gobierno, ela para un verhuur contract cu un edificio di su tata publicamente pero otro miembro nan di su famia ta sigui probecha. E tin un ministro cu tin casi tur su ruman nan arriba payroll di gobierno na salario cu nan no por duplica den sector priva. Casi tur ex-ministro di MEP ta arriba payroll di gobierno como consejero apesar di pensioen lucrativo, hopi di tanto parlamentario como ministro. Incomprensible ta kiko e ex-ministro nan tin di aporta despues di nan manejo ruinoso cu a kibra e rumbo positivo di status aparte y transforme den decadencia total. Pa colmo un di e ex-ministro nan kier purba engradece su mes ta renombra caya pa su mes mientras na bida ainda, kizas e ta realiza despues e no lo sosode. Pa ta justo ningun gobierno cu a sinta lo por a evita medida pero corupcion ta sigui. Awor kier introduci un departamento di integridad como insulto final na e poco verguenza cu a keda nos clase politico.

Mientras ta sigui cu e mesun sistema di gobernacion, historia ta mustra cu e decision nan dificil y recorte nan doloroso requeri ta fuera di e alcance di nos politica of nos politiconan. CAFt, menaza y/o RFT ta e mihor instrumento nan pa salvaguardia e interes nan di Aruba. Desgraciadamente nos mesun politico nan di tur dos partido grandi durante e ultimo 20 aña nan a demostra cu nan no tin interes di nos pais na pecho pero esun di nan mes. E ironia ta cu herencia di status aparte a resulta den intervencion obligatorio di afor pa scapa nos pais y preveni un colapso total.

E aña nan nos dilanti ta bai ta imposicion di medida y mas medida pa purba paga nos debe astronomico. Nos gobernante nan lo pasa pa tuma orden di nos creditor nan pa kiko haci. E mesun incompetente nan cu a derocha e opurtunidad nan di status aparte sin pica lo grita pa independencia. Manera si pafor di reino si nan no lo guia Aruba na un peor kiebra. Nos autonomia ta dera hopi tempo pasa y si nos ta honesto tampoco ela sirbi nos di mucho fuera di pantomina.

Intervencion mester ta bon bini paso ta asina so e decision nan dificil lo wordo tuma pa e pais aki bai dilanti. Compara e periodo di 2010 pa awor entre Aruba y Bonaire arriba e terreno nan cu Hulanda ta maneha pa nos isla bisiña y e conclusion no por ta mas claro.

Elections 01 Jan 1986 – H. Eman I (AVP, PPA, ADN)

Real GDP growth: 490,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 38.7%

Gov’t Debt growth: 462,000,000¹

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: N/A

Debt/GDP: 37.2%

Balance: 28,000,000 (real GDP growth – gov’t debt growth)

1. Estimates for comparison purposes, since there are no figures prior to 1989 I assume equal debt accumulation in previous four years (617/4=154.25 per year to equal 617 in 1989)

Elections 07 Jan 1989 – N. Oduber I (MEP, PPA, ADN)

Real GDP growth: 584,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 33.3%

Gov’t Debt growth: 559,300,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 121%

Debt/GDP: 59.5%

Balance: 24,700,000 | (52,700,000 cumulative)

Elections 08 Jan 1993 – N. Oduber II (MEP, PPA, ADN)¹

Real GDP growth: 274,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 11.7%

Gov’t Debt growth: 102,000,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 10%

Debt/GDP: 53.9%

Balance: 172,000,000 | (224,700,000 cumulative)

1. Including the first half of 1994

Elections 29 Jul 1994 – H. Eman II (AVP, OLA)¹

Real GDP growth: 404,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 15.5%

Gov’t Debt growth: 277,100,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 24.7%

Debt/GDP: 51.1%

Balance: 126,900,000 | (351,600,000 cumulative)

1. From the second half of 1994

Elections 12 Dec 1997 – H. Eman III (AVP, OLA)¹

Real GDP growth: 286,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 9.5%

Gov’t Debt growth: -600,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage²: 0%

Debt/GDP: 41.2%

Balance: 286,600,000 | (638,200,000 cumulative)

1. Including first half of 2001

2. CBA reports decrease in debt whilst government ran a deficit for every year except 1998. I believe the gains are attributed to improvement and reform of tax collection.

Elections 28 Sep 2001 – N. Oduber III (MEP)¹

Real GDP growth: 181,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 5.5%

Gov’t Debt growth: 411,200,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 22.7%

Debt/GDP: 44.4

Balance: -230,200,000 | (408,000,000 cumulative)

1. Including first half of 2005

Elections 23 Sep 2005 – N. Oduber IV (MEP)¹

Rea GDP growth: -70,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: -2%

Gov’t Debt growth: 329,800,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 18.2%

Debt/GDP: 45.6%

Balance: -399,800,000 | (8,200,000 cumulative)

1. Including first half of 2009

Elections 25 Sep 2009 – M. Eman I (AVP)¹

Real GDP growth: -104,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: -3.1%

Gov’t Debt growth: 1,102,900,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 51.5%

Debt/GDP: 69.2%

Balance: -1,206,900,000 | (-1,198,700,000 cumulative)

1. Including first half of 2013

Elections 27 Sep 2013 – M. Eman II (AVP)¹

Real GDP growth: 485,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 14.6%

Gov’t Debt growth: 868,100,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 26.8%

Debt/GDP: 76.9%

Balance: -383,100,000 | (-1,581,800,000 cumulative)

1. Including first half of 2017

Including PPP liabilities to mid-year 2017¹

Gov’t Debt: 5,035,000,000

Debt/GDP ratio: 93.4

Balance: – 923,500,000 | (-2,505,300,000 cumulative)

1. Including projected off-balance sheet liabilities of AWG 923,529,381, Thesis Report Solaida K. Pierre, September 2019

Elections 22 Sep 2017 – E. Wever-Croes I (MEP, POR, RED)¹

Real GDP growth: 174,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: 4.6%

Gov’t Debt growth: 206,800,000

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 5%

Debt/GDP: 73.3%

Balance: -32,800,000 | (-1,614,600,000 cumulative)

1. Figures include second half of 2017 through end of 2019 excluding off-balance sheet PPP liabilities.

Including PPP liabilities to end year 2019

Gov’t Debt: 5,242,000,000

Debt/GDP ratio: 102%

Balance: – 923,500,000 | (-2,538,100,000 cumulative)

2020 IMF Projections (cont’d from end 2019)¹

Real GDP growth: -544,000,000

Real GDP growth percentage: -13.7%

Gov’t Debt growth: 500,000,000¹

Gov’t Debt growth percentage: 11.6%

Debt/GDP: 93.8%

Balance: -1,044,000,000 | (-3,582,100,000 cumulative)

1. Excluding off-balance sheet PPP liabilities

2. Estimate according to PM’s declarations that Aruba will have to borrow AWG 500 million this year to meet its immediate funding needs.

Including PPP liabilities to end year 2020

Gov’t Debt: 5,742,100,000

Debt/GDP ratio: 111.7%

Balance: – 923,500,000 | (-3,082,100,000 cumulative)

Source: Central Bank of Aruba Annual Statistical Digest and IMF (AWG MILLIONS) excluding PPP liabilities

	GDP	Real GDP	Real GDP growth %	Gov’t debt	Financial Deficit/GDP %	Debt/GDP
1986	726	1275	0.7	1549		2110
1987	873	1480	16.1	3089		35.310
1988	1068	1756	18.6	4629		43.310
1989	1245	1969	12.1	617		49.6
1990	1369	2047	4.0	690		50.4
1991	1561	2210	8.0	726		46.5
1992	1716	2340	5.9	1021.3		59.5
1993	1939	2511	7.3	1077.8		55.6
1994	2230	2717	8.2	1168.8		52.4
1995	2364	2785	2.5	1302.3	-0.8	55.1
1996	2470	2820	1.3	1352.8	-2.3	54.8
1997	2742	3018	7.0	1400.4	-2.1	51.1
1998	2981	3074	1.9	1223.2	-1.0	41
1999	3084	3116	1.4	1211.6	-1.1	39.3
2000	3353	3353	7.6	1294.9	0.2	38.6
2001	3437	3254	-3.0	1504.7	-0.8	43.8
2002	3475	3147	-3.3	1653.3	-2.1	47.6
2003	3618	3210	2.0	1494.6	4.8	41.3
2004	3989	3464	7.9	1717.1	-8.9	43
2005	4172	3506	1.2	1904.9	-3.0	45.7
2006	4340	3543	1.1	2012.3	-2.8	46.4
2007	4681	3615	2.0	2135.6	-1.5	45.6
2008	4914	3620	0.2	2051.4	1.0	41.7
2009	4473	3210	-11.3	2230.1	-3.6	49.9
2010	4279	3102	-3.4	2400.7	-4.4	56.1
2011	4564	3212	3.5	2802.1	-7.1	61.4
2012	45371	3168	-1.4	3067.8	-9.86	67.66
2013	4836	34543	95	3419.6	-6.9	70.7
2014	4950	34833	0.8	3882.1	-8.2	78.4
2015	5226	36833	5.7	3934	-3.5	75.3
2016	5309	37523	1.9	4026.2	-3.5	75.8
2017	5471	38393	2.3	4197.3	-2.4	76.7
2018	57342	39173	2.0	4299.1	-0.8	75
2019	58952	39703	1.4	4318.6	-0.1	73.3
2020	51394	34264	-13.7	4818.67		93.88

1. The figure for 2012 is from the CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2017 since the CBA 2019 and 2018 reports do not include figures for 2012.
2. Provisional figures according to the CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2019
3. These figures are from the CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2019 but are calculated using GDP deflator (2000 = 100) for comparison purposes so that 2013 = 140. There is a discrepancy in numbers between the CBA 2017 Digest and later reports in 2018 and 2019 for GDP from 2013 onwards. In this study I am using the higher numbers from the later report.
4. Calculated using IMF Projected Real GDP (% Change) -13.7% and Projected Consumer Price Change 1.5%
5. The CBA Annual Statistical Digest 2019 includes revised numbers for GDP from 2013 onwards which are significantly higher than those in the 2017 Digest for the same period. Hence it is likely that the Real GDP growth, especially for the year 2013, is artificially inflated due to the higher numbers in the later report even after revising using 2000 = 100 GDP deflator. Since revised numbers from 2012 and earlier are not available there is an unaccounted spike and it is more likely that the real figure is closer to that detailed in the 2017 Digest of 4.2%.
6. This figure is from CBA 2017 Digest as the later publications do not include a figure for 2012. The figures from 2013 onwards are from 2019 Digest even though they are lower than those in the earlier publication.
7. Estimate considering PM’s declaration that Aruba will likely have to borrow AWG 500 million this year to meet its immediate funding needs.
8. Based on IMF projections and government expectations.
9. These figures are estimates, since there is no information on government debt prior to 1989 I simply divided the accumulated debt evenly to the proceeding four years for comparison purposes.
10. Estimates for comparison purposes calculated by assumptions in point 9 above.